Making Concern for Suffering Common Knowledge

Often, what matters is not simply what people know, but what they know others know. When something is common knowledge, everyone knows it, everyone knows that everyone knows it, everyone knows that, and so on.

A classic illustration is in The Emperor’s New Clothes: everyone can see that the emperor is naked, but no one wants to be the first to say so, fearing that others will regard them as foolish. Because they aren’t sure that others can see the same thing, everyone continues pretending that the emperor is clothed. Only when a child finally speaks up and the crowd begins repeating the observation does it become common knowledge, allowing everyone to openly challenge the pretense. [...] 

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The Case for Being Nonpartisan

Modern politics often turns moral issues into tribal contests. Crucial debates about what we should value and how we should act quickly devolve from truth-seeking to status-defending, as ideas and causes become signals of identity and allegiance.

If we hope to reduce suffering, this pattern is dangerous. When a cause gets caught up in a political culture war, it invites backlash and shrinks the coalition of people willing to help. For that reason, there is great value in being nonpartisan in our efforts to reduce suffering. By nonpartisan, I don’t mean unprincipled, centrist, or reluctant to take strong stances. Rather, I mean not identifying with a pre-defined political tribe, like the Red or Blue (or Grey) tribe. Resisting the tribal logic of modern politics is difficult but important: it helps to keep the movement to reduce suffering healthy—with norms of cooperation and open inquiry—and focused. [...] 

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S-risk impact distribution is double-tailed

Summary

Discussions about s-risks often rest on a single-tailed picture, focused on how much suffering human civilization could risk causing. But when we consider the bigger picture, including s-risks from alien civilizations, we see that human civilization’s expected impact on s-risks is in fact double-tailed. This likely has significant implications. For instance, it might mean that we should try to pursue interventions that are robust across both tails, and it tentatively suggests that, for a wide range of impartial value systems, it is safest to focus mostly on improving the quality of our future.

Introduction

What is the distribution of future expected suffering caused by human civilization? [...] 

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